Breakfast with Yoda

Stephen P. Cohen, the Yoda like sage who has in the past been something of a muse to the hyper-influential Tom Friedman, held court at Washington’s Mayflower hotel for a few of us journalism types.

When I say "Yoda-like," I mean it in the best possible way: He’s round, bald and cute and more ancient than me. And he delivers his wisdom in precise, drawn out sentences that leave you scratching your head for hours — until, suddenly, they make sense.

Cohen has just written a book about the history of U.S. engagement in the Middle East called, encouragingly enough, "Beyond America’s Grasp — a century of failed diplomacy in the Middle East."

Cohen is an analyst with a formidable command of the region and how presidential policies, instead of being discrete phenomena, engender one another, no matter how contrary they may seem.

But his prosaic value to the likes of us practioners of journalism is that he practises it as a higher form: He actually meets, and for lengthy interviews, with the power players in the process; prime ministers, presidents, kings, terrorist chieftains — his access seems unlimited.

And that’s how he draws his conclusions. More interesting to us than the conclusions — howevern insightful these, indeed, are — are the facts that underlay them. He never reveals his sources — he is the soul of discretion — but watch out for a declarative sentence or two, stated simply and with no attribution, and you’ll get an idea of what he knows.

So what declarative sentences tumbled out this morning, over danishes and stong black coffee?

–On the seriousness of the threats to resign by Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority:

He had agreed to be a successor to Yasser Arafat for a limited number of years. That period has been exceeded.

–On President Obama and whether his approach to Middle East peace-making has shifted:

He is no longer trying to bring about the negotiation of Israelis and Palestinians as a main tool of change, but is trying to create a combination of incentives.

(Think about that. For 12 hours. And couple "Iran" with "incentives." And you’ll get it. I think I did.)

–On the prospect of a Palestinian unity government with Hamas:

There is no indication that Hamas is willing to consider becoming a full, active partner in peace negotiations.

–On the prospect of blockading Iran, to keep it from getting refined petroleum:

There is no sign Obama is considering it. It’s a waste of time to think that’s where it is headed.

–On reports that the United States is planning to supply Israel with long-range flight refueling aircraft:

If the United States starts to supply Israel with the latest version of refueling equipment that will allow (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu to believe Obama is moving toward him.

And then:

The thing Netanyahu is most accomplished at is listening to himself.

(Mind you, this is after Netanyahu met with Cohen on Cohen’s latest Middle east travels.)

–And on the relationship between the two governments, widely reported to have improved in recent weeks:

I think it’s only worse. They (Obama and Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff) do not have a view of him (Netanyahu) as a real partner to American goals.

–On the prospect of Israeli-Palestinian talks:

I think Rahm and the president are determined to make this happen.