WASHINGTON — When Benjamin Netanyahu was contemplating how and when to retaliate for a missile barrage from Iran, his government was, unsurprisingly, in constant consultation with the leadership of its closest ally — the Biden administration.
At the same time, the Israeli prime minister was talking to, and getting a different message from, another American politician who currently holds no office — but may occupy one soon: Donald Trump.
Biden officials counseled Netanyahu to bomb only military targets. Trump said, “Do what you have to do.”
In the end, the prime minister took the White House’s counsel — bombing only military facilities — a sign that he’s trying to proceed cautiously in the final stage of the race between Trump and Kamala Harris.
“He played this one straight and that’s a good look,” said David Makovsky, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank that conducts briefings with top officials of the U.S. and Israeli governments.
But no matter how much Netanyahu may be hedging his bets, Makovsky also said that he thinks the prime minister’s preference on Election Day is clear: “I’m sure he wants Trump to win,” he said.
Israelis favor Trump over Harris by a wide margin, according to polling, despite a brief post-Oct. 7, 2023, bump in public sentiment for Democrat Joe Biden. Among supporters of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, 93% prefer Trump.
Netanyahu had a famously close relationship with Trump and his administration, which fulfilled a checklist of Israeli government wishes. In 2019, Netanyahu featured Trump prominently in his own reelection campaign. The prime minister likewise has had a series of high-profile clashes with Democratic presidents, from Bill Clinton to Barack Obama and, recently, Biden — whose administration Netanyahu has accused of holding up weapons shipments. When Netanyahu addressed Congress earlier this year, Harris was away on the campaign trail.
But with U.S. voters narrowly divided and seemingly equal chances ahead of a Harris or Trump White House, Netanyahu appears to be trying to thread the needle and set himself up for governance after Election Day.
“One of the main influences on his behavior is the U.S. election,” said Shira Efron, the senior director of policy research for the Israel Policy Forum, a group that advocates for the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. “What is Netanyahu best at? Playing for time.”
Still, she added, “He clearly has a preference, and he never hid it — his preference is Trump.”
Historically, Trump has been seen as a Netanyahu ally. As president, he made more changes in U.S. policy that were aligned with Netanyahu’s Likud Party than did any of his predecessors: moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights and unveiling a peace plan that would have extended Israeli sovereignty to large parts of the West Bank. He also brokered normalization deals between Israel and several of its neighbors.
“Trump has carved out for himself an exalted place in Israel’s history,” wrote David Friedman, Trump’s former ambassador to Israel, in an op-ed in The Jerusalem Post this week. “Harris, in contrast, boycotted Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent speech to a Joint Session of Congress, has never visited Israel as vice-president and is a frequent critic of the Jewish state.”
The perception that Netanyahu favors Trump has also made it into campaign efforts in Michigan, considered a must-win swing state for both candidates. Israeli journalist Tal Schneider tweeted photos of an anti-Trump mailer sent by Emgage, a Muslim-focused PAC, reading “Will you support a candidate supported by Netanyahu?”
But there are also signs that Trump may not be as reliable a friend as Netanyahu might hope. Trump paints himself as war-averse, and The Times of Israel this week reported that he has told Netanyahu that if he wins, he wants Israel’s war wrapped up by the time he enters the White House, on Jan. 20. That is the same timeline as what Biden said he hoped for back in July.
Trump has also been making overtures to Muslim voters and Lebanese communities in the United States — despite widespread anti-Israel sentiment and even though Israel has recently escalated its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“I want to see the Middle East return to real peace, a lasting peace, and we will get it done properly so it doesn’t repeat itself every 5 or 10 years!” Trump said in a tweet Wednesday. “I look forward to working with the Lebanese community living in the United States of America to ensure the safety and security of the great people of Lebanon. Vote Trump for Peace!”
The Times of Israel has reported that Israeli officials are privately concerned that Netanyahu could clash with Trump over Trump’s demand for an immediate end to the war.
Netanyahu is personally aware of the risks of Trump’s tendency to punish those who do not do what he wants. After Netanyahu congratulated Biden on winning the 2020 U.S. election, a norm in diplomacy, Trump lashed out against him using profanity. In April, Trump told Time magazine, “Bibi Netanyahu rightfully has been criticized for what took place on October 7.” The pair did not speak again until this summer, when Netanyahu traveled to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
Neither Trump nor Harris has identified as a “Zionist,” as Biden has, but Harris has said she intends to preserve the U.S. relationship with Israel and has no intention of reconsidering aid to the country or its military.
And Netanyahu has seen that no matter how critical the rhetoric coming from the White House has been, the United States has not stopped supporting Israel’s war effort, much to the chagrin of pro-Palestinian protesters whom Harris has kept at arm’s length during the campaign.
“Netanyahu has managed clashes with Democratic presidents without paying a heavy price,” an unnamed Israeli official told the Times of Israel earlier this month. “In fact, he campaigns on his ability to stand up to them.”
Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, has also raised alarm for some pro-Israel voices due to his isolationist bent and opposition to funding Ukraine’s war effort. The vice presidential nominee said in a recent podcast interview that Israel and the United States sometimes have “distinct interests” and that a war with Iran would be “massively expensive to our country.”
The comments were alarming to some who believe that the United States and Israel have entwined fortunes.
“For those pro Trump members of the U.S. Jewish community, trusting Trump-Vance with Israel’s security is a fool’s errand and highly dangerous,” Sharon Nazarian, a philanthropist who backs Harris, said in a tweet, referring to Vance’s comments.
But political scientist Yonatan Freeman said Netanyahu isn’t primarily concerned with Harris or Trump. His top priority, Freeman said, is preserving the U.S.-Israel relationship — and that means not alienating either of the candidates.
“That’s the number-one goal of foreign relations of Israel,” Freeman said. “No matter if there’s elections or not, the fact that Israel wants to maintain a strong relationship with America is a goal that continues to exist, even as this war is being fought.”
Jeremy Ben-Ami, the president of J Street, the liberal Israel lobby that has often been trenchantly critical of Netanyahu, said he saw savvy strategy in signaling from Israeli officials that the war would end in January, when the next U.S. president is inaugurated.
“There were statements back in the spring already about how the war would take at least until January,” said Ben-Ami, whose group has endorsed Harris for president. “What a surprising date to pick, you know, months and months and months ahead. Is it going to be the case that Netanyahu waits for Tuesday, sees a decision here to his liking, and then announces Wednesday, ‘Thanks to the newly elected administration, we’re going to have a ceasefire’?”
Other analysts said Netanyahu is almost certainly more concerned with politics closer to home. Michael Koplow, the chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum, said the prime minister is too cautious to obviously tip the scales to one U.S. presidential nominee or the other. His considerations first and foremost, Koplow said, are the demands of his right-wing coalition, some of whose members have said they will exit if Netanyahu seeks to end the Gaza war with Hamas still in power.
“He’s resistant to do anything that will dislodge his coalition,” Koplow said about the election. “He’s far more sensitive to his own domestic politics and his coalition than he is to the makeup of the U.S. government, or whoever the president is.”
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