Report: Israeli agencies dispute threat posed by Egyptian military

LONDON, April 18 (JTA) — Alarm bells are ringing in some quarters in Jerusalem over the buildup of the Egyptian army, which has more than doubled in size since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, according to sources in London. The massive accumulation of weapons has also sparked an intense debate between two Israeli intelligence agencies about the threat posed by Egypt’s bulging arsenals, say the sources. Indeed, U.S. officials were reported to have been astonished when their Israeli counterparts placed Egypt ahead of Iran on the agenda of the recent U.S.-Israeli semiannual strategic talks. On one side of the debate in Jerusalem is Aman, Israel’s military intelligence branch, which has reportedly warned of a possible deterioration in Israeli-Egyptian relations and the consequent significance of Cairo’s arsenal for Israel’s security. Military intelligence analysts are concerned that Egypt has not only become America’s second-largest arms customer, after Saudi Arabia, but also that its army is now a modern, efficient fighting force, equipped with top-of-the-line American weaponry. On the other side is the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, which is reportedly trying to calm Aman’s anxieties and portray Egyptian-Israeli relations as stable and secure. The London sources say Egypt has more than doubled the size of the its armored corps, replacing outdated Soviet T-62s with modern American tanks, including the M1-A1. At the same time, the Egyptian Air Force now boasts more than 200 modern U.S.-made F-16 jet fighters. Of even greater concern to Israel, which has only a small navy, is the fact that Egypt is now in the process of completely revamping its significantly larger naval fleet. The dispute between Aman and the Mossad centers around the extent to which Egypt poses a real short-term threat to Israel, despite the two countries’ 20-year- old peace treaty. Aman contends that the peace is fragile and that almost any crisis, including a confrontation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, could trigger a resumption of hostilities between the two countries. As a result of this perception, the Israeli army routinely includes the possibility of Egyptian “intervention” in most of its war games. The Mossad reportedly takes a more sanguine view, contending that Cairo’s peace with Israel, however cool, forms the strategic underpinning of Egypt’s Middle East vision. Nothing short of a direct Israeli attack on Cairo, or an outright massacre of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, they say, could cause Egypt to change course and engage Israel in a new war. Mossad officers also claim that Israeli lobbying on Capitol Hill against the arming of Egypt is well known to Egyptian leaders and is regarded in Cairo as a hostile move. The Mossad is also said to be concerned that Aman’s position could cause the Israeli leadership to miscalculate at a moment of crisis and overreact to Egyptian tactical moves. Indeed, Mossad officials are said to be concerned that Aman’s projections may turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy — especially since Aman is currently considered the “national assessor” of strategic threats to Israel and has the ear of Israeli leaders.