THE LEGACY OF KING HUSSEIN King Hussein’s death leaves immense void in Middle East

WASHINGTON, Feb. 8 (JTA) — The death of Jordan”s King Hussein has created an immense void in the Middle East at a critical time for Israel, the Palestinians and, of course, Jordan. Virtually overnight Jordan has lost the only leader it has known since 1952. Hussein”s death from cancer, combined with his decision last month to sack his brother and former heir, Prince Hassan, has created uncertainty and concern among many Middle East diplomats and analysts. “Without King Hussein and Prince Hassan, Jordan loses the two most forward-thinking Jordanians on the issue of peace,” said Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Filling this gap will be tough.” Hussein, 63, who occupied the Jordanian throne since 1952, returned from the United States last month, and in a surprise move removed his brother and appointed his son Abdullah, now 37, heir to the throne. Hassan had held the title of crown prince for 34 years. Along with the throne, Abdullah has inherited an unpopular peace accord with Israel and an unstable domestic economy. Nonetheless, many Israelis believe that Jordan will continue on the path Hussein set. “Jordan has never been just a one-man show,” said Asher Susser, senior fellow at Tel Aviv University”s Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies. Hussein “leaves Jordan a country with an institutional foundation capable of maintaining itself. His departure does not mean the destabilization of the Jordanian state,” he said. But others believe Hussein”s loss “poses a challenge to the stability of Jordan as well as to the Arab-Israeli peace process,” said Joseph Nevo, professor of Middle East history at the University of Haifa. “Abdullah may find it a trying task to follow the footprints of his father.” Who rules Jordan and how is of immense importance for the region. Israel”s longest border is with Jordan, which acts as a strategic buffer with hostile states. In addition, Hussein”s charisma and skills were central to breaking many impasses in the Arab-Israeli conflict. In its last major military conflict with Jordan, Israel seized the West Bank and eastern Jerusalem in 1967. Since then, Hussein followed a more pragmatic path, which culminated in the 1994 peace agreement with Israel. Indicative of the importance Israel places on its relations with Jordan, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon had scheduled a meeting with Abdullah last weekend. The meeting was canceled when Hussein became gravely ill.
Instead, Netanyahu and Sharon attended the king”s funeral Monday along with Israeli President Ezer Weizman. Former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and Labor Party leader Ehud Barak rounded out the large delegation. “King Hussein was not a consensus-builder on the issue of the peace process — he was a trailblazer,” Satloff said. He cited as an example Hussein”s decision to ignore the unanimous advice of his advisers to enter a “fortress Jordan” mindset after Israel and the Palestinians signed their 1993 Oslo peace agreement. Abdullah has his work cut out for him, analysts say. “Unless a very high bar is set now on peacemaking and normalization with Israel, then it is sure to be lowered with the passage of time,” Satloff said. In a speech last week to a handful of Western journalists in Amman, Abdullah promised to remain committed to peace and to close relations with Washington. “I am the extension of His Majesty”s outlook and His Majesty”s beliefs,” Abdullah said, according to The New York Times. Jordan”s hope for peace between “our friends in Israel and our friends in the PNA,” he said, referring to the Palestinian Authority, will remain the chief diplomatic priority, the Times reported. But over time, the new king is likely to be tested by Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, Syrian President Hafez Assad and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. “How Abdullah meets those tests will determine how these three, and others in the region, view him for quite some time,” Satloff said. Abdullah, as the head of Jordan”s armed forces, has had much experience in dealing with world leaders. He is one of only a handful of people to meet with Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi, Assad and Iraq”s Hussein. Abdullah”s ability to handle foreign policy may depend on domestic issues. Adam Garfinkle, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Group, said, “What most concerns Israel and the United States is domestic stability in Jordan. “If things are going weird inside, it is more likely others will try to make trouble and interfere,” he said. With this in mind, it”s important to shore up Jordan”s economy, he said. In a sign of probable stability for Jordan, Kuwait is said to be on the verge of restoring diplomatic ties that were suspended after Hussein backed Iraq during the Gulf War. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also expected to expand economic ties and may send aid. President Clinton, who attended Monday”s funeral with former Presidents Bush, Carter and Ford, has asked Congress to accelerate the aid package of $300 million over the next three years. The aid was promised to Hussein after his intervention at the Wye peace conference between Israel and the Palestinians in October. Abdullah has already met with U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and is a known entity at the Pentagon, where, as head of the military, he has met on numerous occasions with top U.S. military officials. Albright said in a television interview she is “impressed” with Abdullah”s devotion to Hussein. She noted his “very simple statement of ”I”m going to carry my father”s flag,” ” which, she said means that “he would continue to work with us.” Washington insiders expect Clinton to give Vice President Al Gore the responsibility of developing close relations with Abdullah. Some in Washington and Jerusalem are still lamenting that their work developing relations with Hassan was thrown out the window last month when he was replaced by Abdullah. Still, Israeli military leaders have quietly developed good relations with Abdullah that began when he studied at Georgetown University in the early 1980s. An Israeli professor and teaching assistant guided the new king in his thesis, which examined Israeli treatment of Palestinians in the period after the 1967 Six-Day War. Allon Pinkus, the teaching assistant, is now a senior Labor Party official. In last week”s meeting with reporters, Abdullah emphasized the importance of Jordanian neutrality in Israel”s current election campaign. Joking with the reporters, Abdullah told them that he refused to take calls from “friends” who were once active-duty generals but are now running for office, the Times reported. But for now the big question is what Abdullah will do in the short term. “The bottom line is that Jordan has enduring interests which any new king would pursue,” Satloff said. The question is how he pursues them. “King Hussein has always lived by the axiom: Deal with today”s problems today, tomorrow”s problems tomorrow. For a country in Jordan”s position,” Satloff said, “this appears to be good policy. What remains to be seen is whether a new king can live by it, too.””